5 Takeaways from Seahawks-Bills
Witherspoon's struggles, the running game problem, and a sloppy Sunday
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You can find basically any reason to hate this game. The sloppy play. The sloppy weather. The Bills fans taking over the stadium. All of it adds up to a miserable Northwest Sunday and the Seahawks tied again for first place. The problem is that now the Hawks are also just a half game out of last place. Seattle can’t decide who they want to be. Are they the team getting crushed by San Francisco and Buffalo or are they the team we saw in Atlanta? Can this team run the ball and just don’t call run plays or is the offensive line too ineffective?
The reality is the Seahawks aren’t good enough right now and Buffalo exposed that on many levels. Seattle’s home field advantage is all but gone as the Hawks are now 15-15 over their past 30 games at Lumen Field. Without that in their pocket, Seattle has to rely on their scheme, their talent and their urgency. On Sunday, the Hawks were deficient in all three of those areas.
The Sloppiness Killed the Hawks
There is an argument to be made that if the Seahawks don’t make two horrific plays in the red zone that they actually hang with the Bills in this game. Unfortunately those two plays were as sloppy as it gets for a NFL team. After a beautiful drive that started at their own nine yard line, the Hawks faced second and goal from the Bills’ three yard line. Down 7-0 against a good team, Seattle needed to be sound and execute. Instead the snap sailed over Geno Smith’s head for a 18 yard loss. The Hawks would kick a field goal.
Just a few plays later, Josh Jobe intercepted Josh Allen (first pick of the year for Allen) and the Hawks were in business. Following three failed plays, Geno Smith had his foot stepped on during a fourth and goal play. The Hawks’ sloppiness showed up again. But it actually goes beyond those two huge plays. Seattle had 10 missed tackles, committed 11 penalties and lost the turnover battle. This team isn’t talented enough for those type of numbers.
What Happened to the Shutdown CBs?
In the week eight preview, I highlighted the match ups on the back end of the defense for Seattle. With Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper and Khalil Shakir running routes, the Hawks needed to win one-on-one battles to win this game. They did not. Devon Witherspoon gave up six catches on seven targets for 54 yards. Riq Woolen returned from injury and gave up three catches on four targets, but for only 17 yards. Not surprisingly Josh Jobe was targeted and picked on. Jobe gave up three big catches for 81 yards, all at times when Josh Allen needed a big play.
While Jobe is filling in as the third corner, the real concern is Witherspoon. Against Atlanta, Witherspoon gave up seven catches for 70 yards (on nine targets). For the second straight week, Pro Football Focus rated Witherspoon with a pretty terrible coverage grade. For the season, the second year corner has allowed 32 catches (10th worst in the league) for 220 yards after the catch. Those 220 yards are the second worst in the entire NFL. Witherspoon is now the 101st ranked corner by coverage grade in PFF’s system.
Run Defense Continues to Plague the Hawks
The Seahawks are getting dominated at the line of scrimmage and is resulting in an atrocious run defense. As Brock Huard pointed on 710, Seattle gave up 14 rushing first downs on Sunday. That is not just bad for Seattle, it is bad among all teams. Only 13 times between this year and last year has a NFL team given up that many rushing first downs. But it isn’t just stopping the chains from moving, it is the way opposing offensive lines push them around. Turns out that Ernest Jones wasn’t the answer as he rated very low in his run defense by Pro Football Focus, as did Johnathan Hankins and Roy Robertson-Harris. Those three players were brought in to fix this thing and it actually gets worse each week.
“I Was Running!” - Forrest Gump but not the Seahawks
Following the loss to the New York Giants, head coach Mike Macdonald stated that the Seahawks needed to get Kenneth Walker and the run game going. Now, three weeks later, Seattle fans are wondering when that will happen. So is Mike Macdonald. At his press conference this week, Macdonald said: “I do feel like it’s a bit of a broken record every week”. Us too coach. While complimenting the Buffalo defensive scheme, Macdonald also acknowledged that the Seahawks are lacking in two areas. First, they need to call more run plays to start the game. On Sunday, 13 of the first 17 offensive plays were passes. Second, the Hawks’ blocking scheme is fine but they need to get “hat on hat”. When watching film, there are too many times that Seattle doubles someone they shouldn’t and leaves a defender open to go make a play.
The Seahawks are a Mediocre Team
Your Seattle Seahawks are 4-4 on the season with wins over Atlanta, Miami (sans Tua), Denver, and New England. The Bills exposed the Hawks for who they really are once again. A team that can beat other teams living in mediocrity, but not a team that can hang with the elite. Seattle is 12th overall in offense according to Pro Football Focus and 18th in defense. They are first in passing yards per game, but fourth to last in rushing yards per game. Seattle is middle of the pack in passing yards allowed per game and fourth to last in rushing yards allowed per game. Everything reeks of mediocrity. Everything seems to lead to a first round playoff loss at best, if not missing the playoffs by one or two games.
I'm surprised Witherspoon got such a bad coverage grade, since the yards per reception he gave up were so minimal. If those numbers are right, they didn't do much running after the catch against him on Sunday. Maybe that grade reflects that his coverage wasn't so good even when he wasn't targeted, or that he allowed ample room on those six completions he did give up. Some completions allowed are a corner's fault more than others.
I know Football Outsiders (know it's been taken over now) used to have a statistic that measured DVOA variation week to week. If your take on the Seahawks is right, that they go as the quality of the opponent goes, then this would be low for them. I think an acknowledged problem with the stat is it's hard for it take into account things like whether Tua was injured in a given game or not. I think they may be beholden to each team's seasonal rating for gauging the opponent.
It's also not clear whether one wants low variation or not. It might tend to indicate a well-coached team that shows up every week, but of course, you don't want mediocrity.
Seattle is not happy about the Seahawks performance!