One of my favorite commercials of all time involves a car insurance company and an old man driving. The voiceover details different obstacles to driving that could lead to an accident. The commercial says: “A storm is coming!” and then they pan to the old man driving slowly with no apparent idea where he is driving who says “I’m-a-coming!”. It kills me every time.
In addition to the simple hilarity that lightens my mood, the commercial implies that the storm is pending but this isn’t a dangerous storm. This is like how light rain makes Seattle traffic increase by 30% because people start driving like idiots. That kind of storm. The storm that would be dangerous, dynamic and frightening would be more like the storm in the great George Clooney film “A Perfect Storm” or maybe the storm seen in Forrest Gump when Lieutenant Dan is ready to die. These contrasting storms – the light hilarious one and the one that swarms and overwhelms – mirror the contrasting future season paths for our Seattle Storm.
Will we see a hilarious, fun, and light storm? Or will we see a threatening, powerful storm the likes only Lieutenant Dan and Forrest Gump have seen?
Early returns tell us that we are more likely to be joining the old man in the car and just putting on the windshield wipers for this storm.
With a 2-3 record and a new core, the Storm are not in desperation times. They aren’t playing well and they aren’t playing horribly. Which is kind of the worst place to be in the WNBA. This version of the Storm will live in that purgatory of mediocrity with the roster as currently constructed.
Of course, the hopes of General Manager Talisa Rhea were higher than that when she traded the #4 overall pick and Kia Nurse for the Los Angeles Sparks’s #1 pick in 2026. The financial flexibility provided by that trade brought the Storm two prized free agents in Skyler Diggins Smith and Nneka Ogwumike and likely kept Jewell Loyd. (I am guessing Loyd agreed to sign an extension only if the Storm didn’t start over by rebuilding through the draft). Unfortunately, Diggins Smith’s left her shooting in Phoenix in 2021. Diggins Smith is shooting 6.7% from 3 this year but continues to fire them up. Yet she is not alone. The team is shooting 24.7% from 3 which puts them dead last in the WNBA. When watching this team, it is clear that they don’t have shooters. Sami Whitcomb is the only consistent threat from 3 which is a real problem when the strength of the team is in the post. Or is it?
The biggest offensive problem the Storm have (and one that is potentially fixable with only a month together) is their lack of identity. Loyd is clearly going to shoot – good or bad. She often has stretches where she forces up shot after shot, but her skill level is incredible and the Storm need that production. However, it comes at the cost of any offensive flow or rhythm. Ogwumike is a force inside and Ezi Magbegor can be as well, especially rolling on a 1-5 pick and roll. But the Storm don’t play through those two players. Instead, they play a “your turn”, “my turn” offense that plagued the Phoenix Suns this year in the NBA. Some possessions are Diggins Smith attacking on a pick and roll (good!), some possessions are Ogwumike post ups (good), and some possessions are Loyd attacking one on one (not as good but she is a walking bucket). This chemistry and clarity may come in time, but will they be good enough to compete with the New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun?
Likely not. And that is because of their defense. I don’t care that the stats say Seattle’s defensive rating is 5th best in the league. This team struggles on the defensive end. They don’t consistently have urgency to get back on defense on transition (especially evident in the first three games when they turned the ball over at too high of a rate). They don’t know their assignments when they rotate (either in transition or off drop coverage in the pick and roll). And worst of all, they don’t have the personnel to lock up a good team. There is no one on the perimeter who has shown the urgency, grit and determination to make life hell for a lead guard. I watch other teams absolutely swarm and harass Jewell Loyd to the point that she is shooting contested shots at a higher rate than I have seen her do before. (Of course I can’t prove this since the WNBA refuses to use advanced stats like the NBA does). Where is the Storm’s urgency to defend these lead guards. And the league is full of lead guards. Everyone knows Caitlin Clark, likely knows Sabrina Ionescu, and probably has heard to Kelsey Plum. But have you seen what Kahleah Copper is doing in Phoenix? How will this team compete for a championship if they can’t defend at a high rate and don’t have an identity on offense?
The simple answer is they won’t. But they won’t be bad enough to finish in the bottom three. They will probably lose in the first round of the playoffs. Which leads us back to purgatory. Just sitting and waiting for something but what? This team is old and built to win now but not good enough to beat the top three (maybe even more including Phoenix and Minnesota) teams in the WNBA. So what do they need to do to get into a contending position? See part two of the Storm analysis next week.