Seahawks Week 1 Preview: Denver Broncos
Seahawks Week 1 Preview: Denver Broncos
The Seahawks open the 2024 season at home against the Broncos. Will Bo Nix elicit more boos than Russell Wilson?
There is nothing longer in life than the NFL offseason. However, this offseason for the Seahawks was different than the past 14 as Seattle searched for a new head coach. Enter Mike Macdonald and enter loads of enthusiasm from the Hawks fanbase.
While Pete Carroll is undeniably the best coach in Seattle sports history, all eras (good or bad) must end and it was time for the Seahawks to move into a new one. Seattle was a bottom-ten defense by any metric in the past two seasons despite winning nine games in both years.
At the same time, the offense under Carroll was stagnant and did not unlock playmakers like DK Metcalf and Kenneth Walker III. While the numbers backed up the offense (middle to top of the league in offensive DVOA), the offensive line was downright offensive.
With the 49ers as the class of the league and the Rams outplaying the Hawks under the genius of Sean McVay, the Seahawks were just boring and stale.
Now, the buzz around the Seahawks is palpable.
While Vegas still gives the Hawks little respect (7.5 projected wins), NFL pundits are excited to see what Macdonald brings to a talented defense. Seattle will get things started against Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos sans Russell Wilson. However, rookie Bo Nix will start at quarterback and the crossover Hawk/Husky fans will be thrilled to boo the young signal caller like they booed Russ a couple years ago.
Broncos Offense
Projected Starters
QB Bo Nix
RB Javonte Williams/Jaleel McLaughlin
WR Courtland Sutton
WR Josh Reynolds
WR Marvin Mims, Jr.
TE Adam Trautman
LT Garrett Bolles
LG Ben Powers
C Luke Wattenberg
RG Quinn Meinerz
RT Mike McGlinchey
In the Trenches
The Broncos’ offensive line is projected as a middle of the unit group, led by RG Quinn Meinerz (3rd in PFF at guard last year). This group will need to play well in order to protect a rookie quarterback, even if Nix gets the ball out quickly. Both tackles are above average and the Hawks will need to win those matchups to put pressure on Nix in his first NFL start.
Broncos Playmakers
Josh Reynolds is a name that I did not want to see on the Broncos’ depth chart. In his last four starts vs. Seattle, Reynolds put up at least five catches in each match up and scored a receiving touchdown in the last two. So yes, he scares me more than Courtland Sutton. Everyone keeps drafting Sutton in fantasy leagues and expecting a breakout year and he keeps disappointing. It has been 29 games since Sutton put up 100 yards in a game.
While the Broncos pass catchers don’t elicit a ton of fear, the Denver running backs do worry me. The combination of Javante Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin can cause headaches, especially catching out of the backfield. McLaughlin is an underrated stud who may end up with more touches in this game than Williams despite their depth chart designations. This will be a great test for the Seahawks defense who was porous at best versus the run in 2023.
Matchups to Watch
The matchup to watch here is on the sidelines. Mike Macdonald showed virtually zero exotic looks on defense in the preseason but is known for alignments that confuse quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Bo Nix will be starting his first NFL game and trying to read blitzes and coverages. How will Sean Payton protect his rookie QB? How will Macdonald try to confuse Nix? The coaching match up here is what we need to watch closely. If Nix gets comfortable early, I worry for the Hawks.
Broncos Defense
Projected Starters
LE Zach Allen
NT D.J. Jones
DE John Franklin-Myers
OLB Baron Browning
ILB Alex Singleton
ILB Cody Barton
OLB Jonathon Cooper
CB Patrick Surtain II
S P.J. Locke
S Brandon Jones
CB Riley Moss
In the Trenches
Pro Football Focus projects this defensive line group as the second to worst unit in the league. This includes Jonathon Cooper or Baron Browning rushing from the outside in the 3-4 base defense. The Seahawks cannot lose the line of scrimmage in this game. They should be able to run wild with Ken Walker and have plenty of time for Geno. If Smith is getting rushed, it might be a long season in Seattle.
Broncos Playmakers
This list begins and ends with Patrick Surtain II. Ranked as the fourth best defensive back in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, Surtain is a flat out stud.
While the Seahawks should stay away from Surtain, they should absolutely target Cody Barton. Anyone who had to experience Cody Barton as a Seahawks linebacker knows that he is not the answer in the middle of a NFL defense. The Hawks should run right at him and get him in coverage as much as possible.
Matchups to Watch
In the name of Jason Sehorn, please target Riley Moss. Not only should the Seahawks stay away from Surtain, they should actually go after Moss in his NFL debut. While most of the buzz about Moss is that he is a rare white starting corner in the NFL, the reason to watch this match up has nothing to do with that and everything to do with Ryan Grubb. With weapons in Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and DK Metcalf (not to mention Jake Bobo), Grubb has plenty of options to go after Moss. With Surtain having a 50% shadow rate, this may be a day for JSN to shine.
Prediction
The Broncos are starting a rookie QB on the road at Lumen Field with ok playmakers at wide receiver and tight end. Denver’s defense is a bottom third unit in the NFL. But mostly, I expect Macdonald’s group to surprise people with how disciplined and fast they play.
Seahawks 31 (-6), Broncos 10
NFL Picks
In addition to predicting the Seahawks result each week, I will pick five more NFL games for your reading pleasure.
Jaguars at Dolphins (-3)
Take the Dolphins and give the three points. You are telling me that Mike McDaniel gets a whole offseason to draw up plays and he gets to do that against Doug Pederson? The Dolphins are amazing in September.
Texans (-2.5) at Colts
Fantasy players love Anthony Richardson. NFL coaches aren’t so sure. Can he throw with accuracy? Will he stay healthy? Meanwhile, CJ Stroud gets to throw to Tank Dell, Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. The Texans are good. Take the better team and the better QB.
Panthers (+4) at Saints
Take the money line for the Panthers. There will always be a surprising result in the NFL, especially in week one. Derek Carr is the Saints QB. Now, I recognize that Bryce Young is the Panthers QB but at least he is young. New coach theory wins this one.
Commanders (+3.5) at Bucs
Whenever I think that both teams aren’t very good and one team has Baker Mayfield coming off a good year, I take the other team. While the Commanders are rolling out a rookie QB, this game may just come down to a late field goal either way. Jump on Commanders money line if you are feeling spicy.
Rams at Lions (-3.5)
The Stafford-Goff bowl is a great Sunday Night Football debut game. I don’t like picking against Sean McVay but I think the Lions are going to the Super Bowl this year. And they are playing at home. Too much talent for Detroit.
What's your confidence level on the blowout? I'd predict the same...
I was yelling from the highest rooftops I could find for all my friends to take Seattle in their survivor pools. This was the easiest pick of the whole week, and that must feel nice as a Seahawk fan. While you said if Bo Nix could get comfortable there would be trouble, and that is correct, was he ever going to be able to get comfortable?
This was not an inspiring Seahawk performance on the offensive side, but nevertheless was a fairly easy victory. The one thing that can be taken from it is Geno got sacked just twice on 35 drop backs. This is pretty good for a man who loves to get sacked as much as Geno.
As far as the defensive performance, who knows against a rookie QB? The Hawks were stout against the rush also, but without a real threat of the pass I'm not sure if that means much either. Much more will be learned in week two when Seattle must go on the road to face a much better offence led by a Jacoby Brissett who is likely a top-half QB and a rush game that just hurt the Bengals pretty badly.