The NFL really likes to make things difficult sometimes. Just when you think the Seahawks are on top of the world, here come the San Francisco 49ers into town as Seattle is coming off a disappointing loss. Despite leading the NFC West, the Seahawks are three point underdogs at home to a more talented team. The Hawks are missing Byron Murphy, Riq Woolen and Ochenna Nwosu (and likely Julian Love). But the 49ers are missing Christian McCaffrey and Talanoa Hufanga while also coming off a disappointing loss. This game will be brutal, it might be sloppy and hopefully it is competitive. Mike Macdonald can really gain some fans in Seattle if he finds a way to not get rolled by Kyle Shanahan.
49ers Offense
Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)
QB Brock Purdy (2nd/36 QB)
RB Jordan Mason (29th/62 RB)
WR Deebo Samuel (25th/123 WR)
WR Brandon Aiyuk (23rd/123 WR)
WR Jauan Jennings (5th/123 WR)
TE George Kittle (4th/72 TE)
LT Trent Williams (2nd/78 T)
LG Aaron Banks (14th/70 G)
C Jake Brendel (20th/35 C)
RG Dominick Puni (13th/70 G)
RT Colton McKivitz (20th/78 T)
In the Trenches
Trent Williams is as good as it gets at the left tackle position and a future Hall of Famer. Colton McKivitz is also having a nice season on the right side and unfortunately for the Seahawks, the guard duo of Banks and Puni are performing at a high level as well. Put this group all together, along with Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, and you have the second best run blocking unit in the NFL. Considering the Hawks are coming off a really poor performance stopping the run, and are facing injuries plus a short week, the battle in the trenches is looking like a case of trench foot for the Hawks.
49ers Playmakers
Even without Christian McCaffrey, the ultimate NFL weapon, the 49ers are loaded with playmakers. Take your pick. Want to stop the running game and Jordan Mason who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and second in the league in rushing yards? Go for it. Now you have to defend Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle in the passing game. Sorry that doesn’t include Juaun Jennings who is actually 10th in the NFL in receiving yards. Honestly, I am not sure how the Hawks stop these guys.
Matchups to Watch
For the Seahawks to win this game, they have make the 49ers more one dimensional. There are too many weapons and too many options for the Hawks to stop it all. Kyle Shanahan wants to run the ball. He subscribes to the old Mike Shanahan philosophy and loves kicking people in the teeth. Jordan Mason and the run game against the Hawks defensive line and linebackers are the matchup to watch on Thursday night. The Hawks have to find a way to put the 49ers in third and long situations and that only happens if they stop the run game.
49ers Defense
Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)
DE Nick Bosa (3rd/113 DE)
DT Maliek Collins (55th/124 DL)
DT Jordan Elliott (26th/124 DL)
DE Leonard Floyd (73rd/113 DE)
OLB De’Vondre Campbell (69th/79 LB)
LB Fred Warner (1st/79 LB)
OLB Tatum Bethune
CB Charvarius Ward (89th/101 CB)
S Malik Mustapha (inj - Talanoa Hufanga)
S Ji’Ayir Brown (49th/80 S)
CB Demmodore Lenoir (31st/101 CB)
In the Trenches
The Seahawks rank 30th in the NFL in pass block win rate. The 49ers feature the sixth best pass rush in the league led by Nick Bosa. While the 49ers are just league average in run defense, the Seahawks are also 30th in run block win rate. This just doesn’t seem like it is going to end well for Seattle. It will be interesting to see if Ryan Grubb and Mike Macdonald’s commitment to run the ball this week will work. After giving Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III only seven carries combined, the Seahawk staff seems determined to change that on Thursday. As someone famous once said, “all plans seem good until you get punched in the mouth”. Over the past 3-4 years, the Niners have done most of the punching in the trenches.
49ers Playmakers
There are playmakers all over the field for the San Francisco 49ers but it would be silly to not specifically mention Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. Bosa recorded 10 sacks or more the past three seasons including an incredible 18.5 sacks in 2022. He is currently rated the 9th best pass rusher in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus and will be a challenge for Charles Cross and Stone Forsythe. Meanwhile, Fred Warner continues to be the best linebacker in football. PFF rated Warner the 2nd best linebacker in the NFL in 2023 and has him rated as the best in 2024. He is simply dominant.
Match ups to Watch
Despite the fact that the Seahawks clearly want to run the ball more this week, the matchups to watch are in the secondary. Even with a 45-55 split (run-pass), the Hawks will likely put the ball in the air about 30 times. The combination of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon-Smith Njigba give Seattle an advantage - maybe their only positional advantage in this game. Demmodore Lenoir is a good corner but isn’t elite and Charvarius Ward is banged up. Throw in the injury to Talanoa Hufanga that placed him on injured reserve this week and there should be opportunities in the passing game. The Hawks O-line will need to give Geno Smith enough time to find his targets, but if they can do that, Seattle may be able to pick up chunk yards against the Niners.
Prediction
The 49ers are better in the trenches, better at skill positions, and have a better coach right now. The gap between these two teams is simply too big at this point.
Seahawks 20, 49ers 34 (-3.5)
NFL Picks
Record through three weeks (including Hawks predictions): 12-14-3 (wins-losses-push)
In addition to predicting the Seahawks result each week, I will pick five more NFL games for your reading pleasure. A subpar week five for me as I continue to pick the Browns and pick against the Commanders. I have learned my lesson for sure. Maybe a winning week? Probably not.
Colts (+2.5) at Titans
Anytime you give me points against the Tennessee Titans, I am going to take it. Joe Flacco is playing like a top 10 QB and the Colts are a “next man up” operation. It doesn’t matter who is healthy and who isn’t for Indy because they don’t have Will Levis playing quarterback.
Texans (-6.5) at Patriots
Underdogs of 6.5 points or more are winning at an incredible rate in the NFL this season. Not just covering, they are winning outright. Last week alone the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals won as huge underdogs. However, the New Engalnd Patriots are staring rookie Drake Maye against a really good team. I go against the trend and back the Texans.
Bucs (-3.5) at Saints
Want to see a trend in my picks this week? Bet against rookie quarterbacks in their first NFL start. No Derek Carr, no Saints.
Commanders (+7) at Ravens
I am joining the Commanders bandwagon. Toot toot! All aboard! Jayden Daniels is too fun and too good to not cover this big spread.
Lions (-3) at Cowboys
The Lions are really good. The Cowboys are not.