Seahawks Week 7 Preview: Atlanta Falcons
You Like That? No, I don't like this one.
It is hard not to love the Atlanta Falcons. The Dirty Bird, Deion Sanders in his early prime, the sweet uniforms and now Michael Penix Jr. What isn’t to like? Maybe the fact that they are the fifth best team in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus metrics. Or the fact that Kirk “You Like That!” Cousins threw for over 500 yards just two weeks ago. Or the fact that the Hawks have to travel to Atlanta on a three game losing streak. Yeah, those reasons will work for me.
This is a tough match up for Seattle and a really important one to find a way to win. After looking inept at times and unprepared at others, Seattle finds itself quickly at 3-3 overall after an undefeated start through three weeks. With a banged up defense (especially in the secondary) and a team looking for more answers than they hoped at this point in the season, it won’t get easier for Seattle. Following this game, the Hawks will host the Bills and then the Rams (with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua likely back) before the bye.
Falcons Offense
Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)
QB Kirk Cousins (14th/36 QB)
RB Bijan Robinson (6th/67 RB)
WR Darnell Mooney (46th/126 WR)
WR Ray-Ray McCloud III (78th/126 WR)
WR Drake London (9th/126 WR)
TE Kyle Pitts (32nd/72 TE)
LT Jake Matthews (41st/76 T)
LG Matthew Bergeron (43rd/75 G)
C Ryan Neuzil (24th/35 C)
RG Chris Lindstrom (4th/75 G)
RT Kaleb McGary (25th/76 T)
In the Trenches
The name Kaleb McGary will probably be familiar to Seattle area football fans. McGary starred at Fife High School and then the University of Washington, where he won the Morris Trophy as the conference’s best offensive lineman. McGary was drafted at the end of the first round in the 2019 NFL Draft and recently signed a three year deal with Atlanta for around $34 million. McGary has been a top 25 offensive tackle according to PFF for the past three years. Chris Lindstrom is holding it down next to McGary on the right side with a fantastic 2024 season. Lindstrom has been to back-to-back Pro Bowls the last two years and is part of the reason that Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are grading out so well in the run game. Robinson is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and is 10th in the NFL in total rushing yards. Meanwhile Allgeier is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. This seems problematic for a Seahawk defense that gave up 173 yards per game on the ground over the past three weeks.
Falcons Playmakers
Aside from the dynamic rushing duo of Robinson and Allgeier, the Falcons have plenty of playmakers. Former top 10 picks Kyle Pitts and Drake London are immensely talented, if not always productive. However, the presence of a competent quarterback in Kirk Cousins might be changing that narrative. London is 8th in the NFL in receiving yards and Pitts is sixth among tight ends while averaging 14.6 yards per catch. Throw in Darnell Mooney at receiver, who has more yards than both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett, and the Falcons can get yards in a variety of ways. With Cousins’ inability to create with his legs, their whole offense is about getting the ball to their playmakers.
Matchups to Watch
While the Falcons run game is definitely a concern, the return of Byron Murphy should help the Seahawks get back on track. The concern this week are the matchups in the secondary. With safety Rayshawn Jenkins put on injured reserve and cornerbacks Riq Woolen and Tre Brown likely out, the Hawks will be using a random - and worrisome - group to defend London, Pitts and Mooney. Kirk Cousins will likely avoid Devon Witherspoon and turn his attention to the other side of the field. Who will he target? Who knows? Even Artie Burns, signed to the full squad last week, was put on injured reserve this week. Rookie corner Nehemiah Pritchett will see the majority of the snaps at the corner opposite Witherspoon with Dee Williams and Cobe Bryant sprinkled in. Considering Bryant is a safety now (after time as a corner) and Williams is supposed to be a returner only, the matchup warrants your attention.
Falcons Defense
Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)
DE Grady Jarrett (59th/121 DL)
NT Eddie Goldman (72nd/121 DL)
DE David Onyemata (27th/121 DL)
EDGE Matthew Judon (104th/114 DE)
ILB Troy Andersen (30th/81 LB)
ILB Kaden Elliss (55th/81 LB)
EDGE Lorenzo Carter (112th/114 DE)
CB Mike Hughes (23rd/102 CB)
S Jessie Bates III (29th/84 S)
S Justin Simmons (32nd/84 S)
CB AJ Terrell Jr. (40th/102 CB)
In the Trenches
The Atlanta Falcons have some big names near the line of scrimmage, but not big production. Grady Jarrett is a two-time Pro Bowler who is having an ok season, but not great. Matthew Judon was once a big time pash rusher on the outside, but is currently ranked 104th out of 114 defensive ends, according to PFF. The Falcons are similiar to the Seahawks in that they allow about 144 yards rushing per game (which is not good). Last week, Chubba Hubbard of the Carolina Panthers averaged 5.1 yards per carry. In the week before that, Rachaad White of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers averaged 7.2 yards per rush and Bucky Irving (Bucs) put up 4.9 yards per carry. All this to say, you can run on the Falcons. Or at least, teams appear to be able to run on the Falcons granted their offensive line actually creates some holes and the offensive coordinator calls run plays. Hello Seattle!
Falcons Playmakers
While Jarrett and Judon might be the most recognizable names on the Falcons defense, the playmakers for the Falcons are on the back end. None of the Atlanta secondary stands out, but all are solid by PFF grades thus far in 2024. AJ Terrell and Jessie Bates are probably the most well-known to Hawk fans, but all four players are solid. Collectively, the Falcons are 8th in the NFL by PFF coverage grade. The Hawks will need to avoid the big turnover in this game and the most likely playmakers are in the secondary for Atlanta. Bates already has an interception and two forced fumbles this season after recording six picks and three forced fumbles in 2023. His playmaking ability should put Seattle fans on high alert as Geno Smith targets receivers over the middle.
Match ups to Watch
The Hawks have to be able to run the ball to be effective in this game. Kenneth Walker III is too talented to not get 15+ touches and the Falcons are too porous up front to not establish the run game. For this to happen, the Hawks have to win their one-on-one battles on the inside. Seattle needs guards Anthony Bradford, Laken Tomlinson and Christian Haynes to make a jump this week. All three have been disappointing at best this year. Kenneth Walker has four carries for zero yards when running between right guard and right tackle. He has seven carries for just 21 yards when rushing between left guard and left tackle. The Hawks have to get interior runs going in this game. While it may not be fun to watch the interior offensive line when tuning in, this matchup is crucial for the Hawks to come away with a win in Atlanta.
Prediction
The Seahawks need to win this game. That is going to be a difficult task given the injuries in the secondary and how well the Falcons are playing this year (wins over the Eagles and Bucs for example). Given that Seattle hasn’t beaten anyone good yet, I can’t predict a Seattle victory on the road. I hope I am wrong.
Seahawks 27, Falcons 31 (-3)
NFL Picks
Record through six weeks (including Hawks predictions): 17-14-4 (wins-losses-push)
In addition to predicting the Seahawks result each week, I will pick five more NFL games for your reading pleasure. Last week, I went 5-0-1 in picks and thus you should be sending me cash on Venmo.
Lions (+1.5) at Vikings
The Vikings have blown up your survivor pools, your bank account and your online predictions. No one had the Sam Darnold-led Minnesota squad at 5-0 after six weeks in the NFL season. While they are much better than expected, I think the Lions are the best team in the league. Give me Detroit and the points.
Eagles (-3) at Giants
I understand that the Giants beat the Seahawks and they might be better than we thought. I also understand that the Eagles might not be very good. But I believe in the power of revenge games. Barkley back to New York. Give me the Eagles even with giving three.
Jets at Steelers (+2)
Somehow the Jets are favored on the road in this game? I’m sorry, did someone figure out how to get Aaron Rodgers mobile again? Did Mike Tomlin retire? Russell Wilson’s return is a victorious one. Go Steelers and go get vaccinated.
Ravens (-3.5) at Bucs
The Bucs are cool and fun. The Ravens are an elite football team. I think the Ravens win this one by two touchdowns.
Patriots (+6) at Jaguars
Gross. Don’t watch this game. I can’t even believe I picked it. This is an anti-Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence pick as much as anything else.