Top 10 Mariner Prospects and Who the M's Should Trade Now

The Mariners Trade Conundrum: Balancing Prospect Promise with Present Urgency

Your Seattle Mariners are 8-14 over their past 22 games, losing nine games off their AL West lead in the process. This remarkable failure, along with season long struggles at the plate, led Mariner fans all over social media to clamor for a trade. (Let’s be honest - we always clamor for a trade because it is more fun to root for the unknown than what is in front of us.) However, there is another faction of Mariner fans who never want to give up the next big prospect for a team that is floundering. So what should the Mariners do in the next couple weeks? In the post below, I will provide an update for the top 10 Mariners prospects but also indicate which prospects Seattle should considering giving away to win now.

Of course, this topic is a trigger for a lot of long time Mariners fans. Nearly all Seattle fans, and even some casual observers, know about the Erik Bedard trade where the M’s gave up future All-Star Adam Jones for a mercurial (at best) pitcher who only had 30 starts over two years for Seattle. Or the Derek Lowe/Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb deal that pained Mariner fans for decades. But this is how our mind works. We only think of the bad experiences and block out others (unless they are acquiring Randy Johnson.) The reality is that most of the minor league prospects given up in trades in the Jerry DiPoto era have not come back to hurt Seattle. The exceptions are trading away Pablo Lopez (Twins All-Star in 2023 but 5.11 ERA in 2024) and Freddy Peralta (Brewers All-Star in 2021 but 4.11 ERA in 2024). Most people don’t remember those two being shipped away because all five Mariners starters have ERAs lower than both of them by at least half a run.

One of those starters is Luis Castillo with his 3.53 ERA and 116 K’s in 117 1/3 innings pitched this year. The 2023 All-Star was acquired for Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore. Reds fans, and some unbiased observers, felt that Cincinnati had come away with a king’s ransom for Castillo. Find any article that reviews the trade and it will note that the Mariners gave up three of their top five prospects (at a time when the farm system was a bit devoid of great prospects.) Well, one of those prospects, Levi Stoudt, has been released by the Reds, picked up by the Mariners, and released by the Mariners! Marte served an eighty game suspension to start this year and is hitting .175 in the big leagues. Andrew Moore hasn’t risen above AA and Edwin Arroyo is still young but not getting on base enough. (In fairness, Marte could still be good and Arroyo is 19.)

Without further ado, here are the top 10 Mariners prospects in July. Below the list, you will find who I would trade and for what level of player as the Mariners hold on for dear life in the AL West.

Top 10 Mariners Prospects (updated 7/16/24)

1. Colt Emerson, SS (came back from injury on June 27th, missed a month)

18 years old
Modesto Nuts (A)

.286/.429/.848, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 4 SB, 22 BB, 19 K’s

2. Felnin Celesten, SS (hasn’t played since June 20th due to minor wrist injury)

18 years old
ACL Mariners (Rookie)

.342/.423/.984, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 5 SB, 18 BB, 28 K’s

3. Cole Young, SS

20 years old
Arkansas Travelers (AA)

.262/.352/.743, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 14 SB, 40 BB, 54 K’s

4. Harry Ford, C

21 years old
Arkansas Travelers (AA)

.253/.376/.757, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 21 SB, 42 BB, 56 K’s

5. Lazaro Montes, RF

19 years old
Everett AquaSox (A+)

.293/.393/.880, 14 HR, 78 RBI, 2 SB, 48 BB, 80 K’s

6. Tyler Locklear, 1B

23 years old
Tacoma Rainiers (AAA)

.282/.388/.891, 12 HR, 43 RBI, 5 SB, 37 BB, 78 K’s

Majors - .200/.250/.683, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, 1 BB, 12 K’s

7. Jonny Farmelo, OF (injured – out for year with ACL tear)

19 years old
Modesto Nuts (A)

.264/.398/.819, 4 HR, 25 RBI, 18 SB, 36 BB, 52 K’s

8. Tai Peete, 3B

18 years old
Modesto Nuts (A)

.277/.357/.729, 1 HR, 37 RBI, 23 SB, 38 BB, 101 K’s

9. Jonatan Clase, LF

21 years old
Tacoma Rainiers (AAA)

.274/.373/.856, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 26 SB, 40 BB, 72 K’s

Majors - .184/.205/.416, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3 SB, 1 BB, 13 K’s

10. Michael Arroyo, SS

19 years old
Modesto Nuts (A)

.279/.404/.904, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 8 SB, 39 BB, 61 K’s

I am going to stick to hitters for proposed trades. While I do believe the Mariners need to acquire a bullpen arm, my hope is they can do that with someone not in the top 10 list above.

There are three tiers of players worth acquiring for the Mariners.

Tier 1

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

Who I would trade: Anyone not named Felnin Celesten. I am high on Cole Young and Colt Emerson, but I can go for trading one of them away. Honestly, I would trade a Castillo-type package for Vlad. He changes everything to me. The narrative is that he is having a down year. Really?

Hitting .288 (.359 OBP) with 14 HR and 55 RBI. This man is a four-time All-Star. Throw everything but Celesten at the Jays for him.

Tier 2

Luis Robert, Randy Arozarena, Cody Bellinger, Isaac Paredes, Yandy Diaz

Who I would trade: Anyone not in the top three (Emerson, Celesten, Young). These are all difference makers and the M’s need difference makers. Robert, Arozarena and Bellinger all have flaws or issues that make them risky, but the Mariners can’t afford to roll out Haniger, France and Polanco every day.

Diaz/Arozarena with Paredes makes me giddy.

Tier 3

Jazz Chisholm, Brent Rooker, Bo Bichette, Lane Thomas

Who I would trade: Anyone not in the top five or a package of Ford and a lower-level minor leaguer. Chisholm makes me really nervous. There are way too many people around baseball who don’t like the fit for various reasons. Rooker and Thomas get me more excited than Bichette, but all seem like upgrades over the crap sandwich rolled out daily in Seattle.

Note: take your Paul DeJongs and Josh Bells of the world and ship them somewhere else. Please don’t make those names be our big deadline deals.

Double note: I would trade a pretty high-end prospect for Mason Miller of the A’s if they were willing to give him up. He just threw the fastest pitch in All-Star game history last night.