USA Men's Basketball: Gold or Bust?
What to watch as the USA men's basketball team shoots for their 5th straight gold medal
In 1992, the United States men’s basketball team defeated opponents by an average margin of nearly 44 points per game. The “Dream Team” changed everything about Olympic basketball and has been well documented for all to remember. The names are iconic - Jordan, Magic, Bird, Barkley, Ewing, Stockton, Malone. The list goes on and on. In 1996, the US team might have been even more complete if not as good on the top end. With 12 Hall of Famers (yes all 12) on the roster, they rolled to a gold medal winning their final game by 26 points. As the 2000 Olympics rolled around, trouble was on the horizon for the USA.
Kobe Bryant. Tim Duncan. Grant Hill. Allen Iverson. Karl Malone. Shaq. David Robinson. Chris Webber. All names of players on an all-NBA roster who did not suit up for the 2000 Olympic team. Vince Carter still provided maybe the most iconic moment in Olympics basketball history and the US won the gold medal.
But the victories of 30 and 40 points disappeared. The 2000 team won their last four games by 8, 15, 2 and 10 points respectively. But they still brought home gold. That is not what happened four years later. The 2004 team left much to be desired as they finished with a bronze medal (just two years after a disastrous showing in Indianapolis at the FIBA World Cup.) Yet it wasn’t for lack of star power that the 2004 team failed to come home with gold. True, they were young, but the roster included Allen Iverson, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Amar’e Stoudamire and Carlos Boozer. So why didn’t they win? The blame shares primarily included a lack of defense in the NBA, no outside shooting, and no consistency in coaching or program from USA basketball and the NBA. This led USA basketball to completely revamp how they approached each version of a “Dream Team” and the 2008 team became known as the “Redeem Team” with Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade and LeBron James playing unselfish, hard nosed basketball to bring home gold again.
Amazingly as the world has gotten better at basketball, the USA still doesn’t always brings their best players to the Olympics. In 2021, the Amercians were missing LeBron James, Steph Curry, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, and Kawhi Leonard among others. The roster was good enough to sneak out the gold medal (after finishing 2nd behind France in group play), but the performance of a “JV” USA roster in the 2023 FIBA World Cup motivated many stars to pledge allegiance in 2024. James, Curry and Davis join the likes of Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Devin Booker and Anthony Edwards to form a ridiculously talented roster in Paris. However, there are 61 NBA players on international rosters in 2024 as compared to just nine players in 1992. The talent and skill around the world has improved and the United States will need to do more than just show up to come home with gold. Even in 2008, the Redeem Team seemed like an inevitable champion when contrasted with the task in front of the 2024 team. So what does this team need to do to bring home the gold? Here are five things to watch for as you tune in wearing your stars and stripes tank top and matching shorts.
Embiid and Davis
When Joel Embiid decided to play for the United States, it was considered a major coup and exactly what was needed on this roster. Lacking size of some other countries (uh France), Embiid fills a role exposed in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. However, in the six exhibition games leading up to the Olympics, Anthony Davis has clearly looked like the better player and more importantly, the better fit, for the United States.
The chemistry Davis has with LeBron is clear, but A.D. also flows nicely with Steph and Edwards while also being able to defend guards that Embiid cannot. Davis is also in better shape, allowing the U.S. to play faster with him in the line-up. It is clear that Steve Kerr and company are trying to get Embiid involved with designed postups for him during the course of the game, but that is part of the problem. Davis just plays off the other talent while Embiid needs the game to run through him to be effective. If the United States struggles in pool play, it will be interesting to see Embiid’s minutes in those games.
The Greatest Olympian’s Return
Only one player has not made an appearance in the six exhibition games leading up to the Olympics. No, it isn’t Micah Potter. (Who is Micah Potter? I asked that same question. Read about the random guy at the end of the bench here). Kevin Durant is unequivocally the greatest United States men’s basketball player of all-time. KD has the three highest per game averages in Olympic play (20.7 in Tokyo, 19.5 in London, and 19.4 in Rio.) And Durant has not played yet for the 2024 team due to injury. Incorporating KD’s anticipated return in the opener versus Serbia will be fascinating. Does it screw up the chemistry of LeBron and Steph? Which of Tatum, Booker or Edwards get less minutes? Does Embiid lose post up opportunities? KD thrives in the post at this age but can obviously space the floor as well.
Offensive Philosophy
The return of Durant highlights the biggest concern for the United States team heading into pool play. Coach Kerr seems to want the team to play faster, but not all players or lineups fit that philosophy. At this stage in his career, KD thrives with a mid or low block post up. Embiid also plays that way. LeBron is 39 years old. Will the USA get out and push the pace or will these three key veterans slow down the game?
In addition to pace, team USA needs to find some cohesion together. Too many possessions end with an isolation drive or post up rather than the type of offense Kerr runs at Golden State. Was that just hiding some sets or early offense in exhibition games or will that be the style the U.S. relies on in tight games? Other than action involving Steph Curry (who is used to moving without the basketball playing in Golden State), there was a lot of standing on the perimeter and ball watching. In fact, you can see Steph pass and then move to screen away or get screened, but other players don’t know what to do. Not only is that displeasing to the eyes, it won’t be good enough to beat France and Germany.
Crunch Time Lineup
This team is loaded with all-stars. Honestly, there might be have at least eight future NBA Hall of Famers on the roster (not sure on Halliburton, White, Holiday and Bam). With that much talent, who is on the floor when it matters most?
Based on exhibitions, it would seem that Jrue Holiday, Devin Booker, LeBron James, Steph Curry and Joel Embiid will start versus Serbia. The second unit has been Derrick White, Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, and Anthony Davis. Poor Tyrese Halliburton has taken the Christian Laettner role (zero minutes in the last exhibition game). But all of this was without Durant. The team seems to be fine with Edwards bringing the ball up in the second unit or even in the first unit when he overlaps with them. That leads me to believe Durant will take some White minutes and maybe a little Tatum or Bam time. Durant will also likely be on a minute restriction in the first couple games, but once he is back healthy he will be on the floor at the end of games. KD will be joined by Curry, LeBron and Davis. The fifth player will alternate based on needs between Holiday and Edwards. Or will someone break into that closing group? It is worth watching for this alone.
Alpha Dog or Alpha Dogs?
The closing group conversation leads to my favorite part of Olympic basketball. Who is the true alpha dog of the NBA? Is there more than one? Interestingly, despite his age, LeBron is the ultimate alpha. He is the player gathering the team together after games and he is getting the ball at the end of games. While LeBron is a typical alpha, Curry is clearly an alpha in his own right. Steph is simply so comfortable with who he is that he has no problem deferring to LeBron while having the respect of every player in the room. What about Durant? He has been the best player on team USA for three straight Olympics. What about Embiid? He clearly thinks he is. And what about young Anthony Edwards? He said he will defer to no one in this Olympics and showed no fear in exhibition games. Close games reveal who is a true alpha and I can’t wait to see who emerges and who shrinks in the face of pressure.
Watch the opening game for team USA on Sunday at 8:15 am pacficic time. Here is the complete pool play schedule for the gold medal favorites.
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