Can Washington’s Defense Hold Off the Scarlet Knights’ Ground Attack?; Week 5 Picks
Can Washington’s Defense Hold Off the Scarlet Knights’ Ground Attack?; Week 5 Picks
Washington Huskies Take on Undefeated Rutgers: Key Matchups, Players to Watch, and Predictions for Friday's Big Ten Clash
SeaTown Sports is a free email newsletter covering Seattle’s sports teams. Click the button below to subscribe:
Washington at Rutgers
Date: Friday - September 27, 2024, 5 p.m. PT
Location: SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)
TV: FOX
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Overview
Record: 3-0
Last week: Win at Virginia Tech, 26-23
Conference: Big Ten
Coach: Greg Schiano
Key Players:
Kyle Monangai (Sr.) Running Back - Leading Rutgers is one of the top running backs in the country, Kyle Monangai. After earning second-team Big Ten honors last season, Monangai is on both the Doak Walker Award Watch List (top college running back) and the Maxwell Award Watch List (college football player of the year). This season, Monangai ranks third nationally with 152.3 rushing yards per game. Last week against Virginia Tech, he rushed for 84 yards on 26 carries.
Dariel Djabome (Jr.) Linebacker - Djabome has emerged as one of Rutgers top players on defense. He leads the Rutgers defense with 24 tackles. He also has three quarterback hurries, and one forced fumble. He is especially strong in defending against the run. Per Pro Football Focus, he earned the third-best rushing defense grade in the country last weekend against Virginia Tech among all linebackers.
Dymere Miller (Sr.) Wide Receiver - Miller leads the team with 13 catches for 212 yards. He has at least four receptions in each of the team’s three games. Prior to transferring to Rutgers, Miller was a first-team All-American receiver at the FCS level at Monmouth.
Injury News
Washington
Edge Zach Durfee and linebackers Drew Fowler and Anthony Ward should be available to play.
Tight end Quentin Moore and Makell Esteen our out, but may return for the Michigan game next week.
Left tackle Soane Faasolo is questionable.
Five Things to Know
Washington’s Defense Will Keep the Game Close.
This game might be a nail-biter. The Huskies have not allowed a touchdown in three of four games this season. At the same time, Rutgers ranks No. 6 in the country in time of possession.
Both these things tell me that this game will be low-scoring. First, when Rutgers has the ball, because of their focus on running the ball, their offensive drives will eat up clock. Second, Washington’s defense usually does not give up touchdowns, meaning Rutgers may end up kicking a fair amount of field goals. Washington’s defense’s worst game so far was in the Apple Cup, but that game featured a dynamic quarterback in John Mateer. In contrast, they will have to deal with a one-dimensional running attack that leans on Kyle Monangai.
Matchup to watch: Washington’s Defense vs. Kyle Monangai and Rutgers’ Running Backs. Speaking of Monangai, the Huskies are going to see a lot of Monangai. He had 26 and 27 carries against Virginia Tech and Akron respectively. Virginia Tech did a good job of containing him, holding him to an average of 3.2 yards per carry. Monangai is not a pass-catcher, as he only has two receptions for three yards this season.
Washington will also get a dose of running back Samuel Brown V. Brown had 14 carries for 60 yards and scored a pair of short-yardage rushing touchdowns in the Virginia Tech win last week.
How has Washington’s run defense fared this season? The Huskies’ run defense is ranked No. 12 in the country with a 90.1 grade on Pro Football Focus. I’ll profess. I had no idea that the run defense has been that successful. One of the many standouts on defense has been edge Isaiah Ward. The sophomore recorded four tackles, two tackles for loss, and a sack against Northwestern last week. For those putting stock into PFF grades, Virginia Tech’s rush defense is ranked No. 121. If the Hokies were able to contain Monangai, he may not pose as much of a problem for the Huskies as some may anticipate given his accolades.
Denzel Boston is Will Rogers’ Favorite End Zone Target. Boston’s five receiving touchdowns places him in the top ten of the entire country. Boston is second on the team with 287 receiving yards, behind teammate Giles Jackson who has a touchdown and 342 receiving yards. Boston is coming off a monster game against Northwestern where he caught seven receptions for 121 yards and two touchdowns.
The last time they met. A No. 8-ranked Washington squad traveled to New Jersey in 2017 for a non-conference game. The Huskies beat Rutgers 30-14. Huskies quarterback Jake Browning threw two touchdowns, one to Dante Pettis, and one to Lavon Coleman.
The Birthplace of College Football. Rutgers and Princeton played the first-ever game of college football on November 6, 1869 in New Brunswick, New Jersey. Rutgers won, 6-4. The Rutgers game notes provided this historical description of the game:
The game was played with two teams of 25 men each under rugby-like rules, but like modern football, it was “replete with surprise, strategy, prodigies of determination, and physical prowess,” to use the words of one of the Rutgers players.
At 3 p.m. on that memorable afternoon, the 50 combatants and about 100 spectators gathered on the field. Most of the assemblage sat on a low wooden fence and watched the athletes doff hats, coats and vests and use suspenders as belts. To distinguish themselves from the bareheaded visitors, 50 Rutgers students, including players, donned scarlet-colored scarfs which they converted into turbans.
Washington’s Keys to Victory
Key 1: Contain Kyle Monangai
It’s not a secret. Kyle Monangai is going to be fed the ball. Rutgers is also going to feed its other running backs on offense. Last week against Virginia Tech, rushing plays accounted for 67% of Rutgers’ plays.
Monangai is not unstoppable. In back-to-back November games last season against Iowa and Penn State, Monangai was only able to rush for 39 yards in each game and he only averaged 3 and 2.4 yards per carry in each of those respective games.
The Husky defense needs to be able to stop the run by making its first tackles on contact and pursuing Monangai immediately out of the backfield. Ultimately, the more the Huskies can get Rutgers to pass, the better.
Key 2: Start fast and play crisp on offense
The Husky offense has shown flashes of brilliance, but at other times have shot themselves in the foot through botched snaps, untimely penalties, and questionable play-calling decisions. On the other hand, Rutgers’ offense is sixth in the country (35:02) in time of possession and eighth in fewest penalties per game (4). On defense, Rutgers has yet to allow any points in the first quarter.
Washington’s offense needs to play better and needs to play better from its first drive. Getting ahead or staying within striking distance will force Rutgers to pass, which it prefers not to do.
Additionally, once the Huskies’ offense gives up possession of the football, it may not get it back for a long time given the slower tempo and style of the Rutgers offense. The number one issue with the Husky offense is its inability to get and stay in a rhythm. Getting fewer possessions, means Washington must execute when it does have the football.
Key 3: Compete for all 4 quarters
Rutgers is favored by a mere 2.5 points. I agree with the Las Vegas oddsmakers, I think this game will be close. We saw last year how a team wins close games: its players make big plays to respond to momentum shifts and the defense plays well enough to keep the game close until the weaning minutes of the fourth quarter.
I’m interested to see whether the Huskies can win each quarter from start to finish.
Against Weber State and Eastern Michigan, the Huskies struggled to start those games strong and failed to put up any first quarter points.
Against Washington State, the Husky offense sputtered in the second half, scoring a mere six points in the third quarter.
And against Northwestern, the Huskies came out of halftime flat, and failed to score any third-quarter points.
Can the Huskies compete, and specifically its offense, for all four quarters against Rutgers in a cross-country Friday night game? This is perhaps the most important key as Rutgers has scored points in each quarter it has played so far this season. In other words, unlike the Huskies’ offense, Rutgers offense has clicked, or at least shown signs of life, from start to finish in each of its games.
Prediction
Despite pulling out a 24-5 victory to open Big Ten play against Northwestern, Washington’s offense continued to show signs of inexperience and lacked the requisite killer instinct to put away the Wildcats when it had the opportunity to do so in the third quarter.
Rutgers is coming into this game battle-tested after securing a close victory on the road against Virginia Tech. Combine that experience with the fact that Washington is traveling across the country for this game, I’m giving Rutgers a slight edge. I think Rutgers, unlike Northwestern, will likely get at least 7 points off of a turnover.
Spread: Rutgers is favored by 2.5 points
The Pick: Rutgers 16, Washington 14
Week 5 Picks
2024 Record vs. the spread: 7-13
2024 Record, straight up: 16-4
Week 4 Record vs. the spread: 2-3
Week 4, straight up: 3-21
Week 5 reader guest picker: James
Wisconsin (2-1, 0-0) at No. 13 USC (2-1, 0-1) (Saturday at 12:30 p.m., CBS)
USC is coming off a tough road loss to Michigan. They return home to a reported sold-out crowd at the Coliseum. And Wisconsin is starting its backup quarterback. USC covers and wins big.
The spread: USC is favored by 15.5 points
The pick: USC 31, Wisconsin 13
James’ pick: USC 27, Wisconsin 17
No. 2 Georgia (3-0, 1-0) at No. 4 Alabama (3-0, 0-0)(Saturday at 4:30 p.m., ABC)
This could be a preview of the SEC Championship game and maybe even the National Championship. I think Georgia “bounces” back after a scare against Kentucky. Unrelated, but I’ll probably feel like rooting against Alabama’s coach.
The spread: Georgia is favored by 2 points
The pick: Georgia 23, Alabama 20
James’ pick: Alabama 35, Georgia 27
No. 19 Illinois (4-0, 1-0) at No. 9 Penn State (3-0, 0-0) (Saturday at 4:30 p.m., NBC)
Illinois has the most impressive resume of all Big Ten teams with wins over Kansas and Nebraska. I think they run into a strong Penn State team with quarterback Drew Allar having a big game.
The spread: Penn State is favored by 18.5 points.
The pick: Penn State 31, Illinois 20
James’ pick: Penn State 38, Illinois 10
Washington State (4-0) at No. 25 Boise State (3-0) (Saturday at 7 p.m., FS1)
Of course this game is at night. Feels like it’s going to be a shootout. I’m giving the Broncos the edge because it is on their blue turf and their running back Ashton Jeanty is one of the best in the country.
The spread: Boise State is favored by 7.5 points
The pick: Boise State 41, Washington State 32
James’ pick: Boise Sate 41, Washington State 38
No. 8 Oregon (3-0, 0-0) at UCLA (1-2, 0-1) (Saturday at 8 p.m., FOX)
Oregon proved last week they can be a dominant team. They’ll continue that dominance against the Bruins at the Rose Bowl.
The spread: Oregon is favored by 24 points.
The pick: Oregon 46, UCLA 17
James’ pick: Oregon 42, UCLA 17
Thank you for reading. We appreciate all who support, subscribe, and share SeaTown Sports with friends and family. If you haven’t already — please consider subscribing below.
Week 4 guest picker Kevin N. went 3-2 straight up, and 2-3 against the spread.