Hoosiers vs. Huskies: Can Washington End Indiana’s Perfect Season?; Week 9 Picks
Indiana Hosts Washington in Big Ten Showdown: Can Huskies Overcome Road Struggles and Hand the Hoosiers Their First Loss?
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Washington at Indiana
Date: Saturday - October 26, 2024, 9 a.m. PT
Location: Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)
TV: Big Ten Network
Indiana Hoosiers Overview
Record: 7-0, 4-0 (Big Ten)
Last week: 56-7 win vs. Nebraska
Conference: Big Ten
Coach: Curt Cignetti
Key Players:
Tayven Jackson (RS So.) Quarterback - The major news of the week is that Indiana starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke will miss Saturday’s game against Washington after suffering a “nail bed” injury on his throwing hand in the team’s win against Nebraska last weekend. This means that Tayven Jackson will get the starting nod against the Huskies. Jackson entered the second half of last week’s game against Nebraska with a comfortable 28-7 lead. He finished the game completing 7-of-8 passes for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson is more experienced than the typical second-string quarterback with five starts under his belt for the Hoosiers in the 2023 season. How he performs and leads the Hoosiers offense is perhaps the most important factor in this game.
Justice Ellison (Sr.) Running Back - The Hoosiers may adjust their game plan to set up the pass by establishing their run game. This means that Wake Forest transfer and one of Indiana’s captains, Justice Ellison, may play a more prominent role in Indiana’s offensive game plan. Ellison exploded for 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns on nine carries in last week’s win over Nebraska.
Aiden Fisher (Jr.) Linebacker - Fisher is tied for third in the Big Ten with 66 total tackles and comes off of an 11-tackle performance against Nebraska. Fisher has had eight or more tackles in six of Indiana’s seven games this season. Fisher, like 13 of his teammates, transferred from Cignetti’s old school, James Madison, to Indiana.
Injury News
Indiana
Quarterback Kurtis Rourke is out.
Washington
Offensive lineman Maximus McCree is out with a thumb injury.
Edge Zach Durfee is expected to play.
Five Things to Know
Indiana is one of college football’s best stories this season. With a 7-0 record, the Hoosiers are one of the nine remaining undefeated teams in the country. New head coach Curt Cignetti has engineered a remarkable turnaround, already doubling Indiana’s win total from last season (3-9). ESPN’s College Gameday will host its show in Bloomington for the second time in the show’s history
Advanced metrics indicate Indiana is for real. Indiana hasn’t necessarily had a challenging schedule — games against Big Ten bottomfeeders UCLA and Northwestern aren’t anything to write home about. Neither are blowout non-conference wins against Florida International and Western Illinois. Regardless, Indiana beat all of those teams and beat them handily like a good team is supposed to do.
College Football Insiders (CFI) ranks Indiana No. 14, despite its 114th-ranked strength of schedule. CFI also has Indiana with the No. 8 best rushing EPA and the No. 2 best dropback EPA. On defense, Indiana is No. 28 against the run and No. 31 against the pass. For comparison’s sake, here are Washington’s ranks: No. 52 rushing EPA, No. 29 dropback EPA, No. 11 against the pass, No. 65 against the run.
Matchup to watch: Washington’s secondary vs. Tayven Jackson and Indiana’s pass catchers
Fisch’s best guess is that Indiana’s offense doesn’t change much in terms of its offensive philosophy despite Tayven Jackson temporarily taking the reins at quarterback this weekend. This means a balanced offensive attack. This year the Hoosiers offense is operating almost a perfect balance between run and pass: 51% running plays, 49% passing plays. Jackson is more of a dynamic threat than Rourke, meaning the Husky defense might see more RPO and play-action passes from Indiana than it has normally employed this season.
If Jackson can move the ball effectively against Washington in the air, this game will get out of hand quickly. Indiana’s offense is a juggernaut. In its pass game specifically, the Hoosiers are averaging 277.3 yards passing per game (15th in the country) and Pro Football Focus grades Indiana’s passing offense as the second-best in the nation.
The Hoosers have incredible depth at the wide receiver position. Indiana returned three wide receivers from last season and brought in four transfers. Four different receivers have three or more touchdowns for the Hoosiers. The receiving corps is led by Elijah Sarratt, a transfer who came to Indiana with Cignetti from James Madison. Sarratt leads the team with 578 receiving yards. He also has three touchdowns.
Can Indiana’s offense find success against the Husky secondary? Washington has not allowed more than 115 yards passing in its past four games and allowed a season-high of 245 passing yards to Washington State in the Apple Cup. It is difficult to see how Indiana beats Washington if its pass game is limited to the 150-200 yard range, but Iowa and Rutgers proved that they could beat the Huskies without an effective pass game.
The Huskies’ Road Woes. Washington has yet to win a road game this season. And a road game against No. 13 Indiana might be the most winnable among the remaining road games with the Huskies also having to travel to No. 3 Penn State and rival No. 1 Oregon in this back half of their Big Ten schedule.
Fisch said on the Brock and Salk show that traveling multiple time zones has been “unique” and “harder than maybe any of us wanted to give it credit for early on.”
Washington’s two road losses have had elements of sloppiness and lack of execution.
In Washington’s 21-18 loss to Rutgers, the Huskies racked up 521 yards of offense but only managed 18 points due to red-zone inefficiency, penalties, and missed field goals.
In the Iowa loss, the Hawkeyes dominated the Huskies in the trenches. Iowa’s offensive line handled Washington’s defensive line, allowing Kaleb Johnson and the rest of Iowa’s rushing attack to total 220 yards on 37 carries. Iowa’s defense consistently pressured Washington quarterback Will Rogers, evidenced by Iowa’s four sacks, and prevented the Huskies offense from maintaining any semblance of rhythm throughout the game.
The series between Indiana and Washington. Indiana leads the all-time series between the two programs, 2-1. The teams last met in 2003, with No. 22 Washington beating Indiana 38-13 in Seattle. Huskies quarterback Cody Pickett threw for 290 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception. Washington’s Reggie Williams caught 4 passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns.
YouTube has gifted us the entire game:
Washington’s Keys to Victory
Key 1: Pressure and contain Tayven Jackson.
While Indiana may try to set up the pass by establishing its ground game, eventually, Jackson will have to make some throws for this Indiana offense to function effectively. In his limited appearance last week, Jackson completed 7-for-8 passes for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Washington’s defense holds a 90.8 coverage grade on Pro Football Focus, ranking the defense as the 14th best in coverage in the country. This defense has been at its best when defensive coordinator Steve Belichick has been able to dial up pressure and at the same time, trust the secondary in man-to-man coverage. Pressure on the quarterback does many things, but it can lead to turnovers, which are crucial in tough road games like this one.
Key 2: Get the lead.
It has been well-documented that Indiana has never trailed all season. Washington, at the same time, has been notoriously slow at getting its offense to score in the first quarter, averaging 3.4 points in the first quarter in games this season. Washington has also struggled to set the tone offensively, failing repeatedly to score a touchdown on its first drive.
Can extra time to prepare and rest make a difference in this game? I’m not sure, and Washington’s offense’s inconsistency makes me think the Huskies won’t be the first team to get a lead on Indiana. But if the Huskies are able to get a lead on the Hoosiers, Indiana would suddenly be put into unfamiliar territory, which can only be a good thing for the Huskies who have already played in a few one-possession games this season.
Key 3: Control time of possession.
How do you stop an Indiana explosive offense? One way to do it is to simply limit possessions. Fisch’s pro-style offense is not necessarily predicated on grinding out long-time-sucking drives, but it will be interesting to see how Fisch calls this game if Washington is somehow able to capture the lead. While Jonah Coleman is Washington’s primary running back, Cam Davis and Adam Mohammed will also contribute. With three capable running backs, Washington could consider slowing its offense down deliberately to try to keep the game close.
Prediction
This game comes down to whether Tayven Jackson can perform sufficiently to put points on the board against a strong Washington pass defense.
My gut tells me that Indiana’s offense won’t fall off a cliff just because they have their backup quarterback starting in this game. This is still a home game for Indiana, the Hoosiers have a solid run game, and Jackson has a sufficient amount of game experience from last season and this season, and he’s done nothing but show that he is more than capable at running Indiana’s offense.
Washington comes into this game off of a bye week, fully rested. To win this game, the Huskies will have to put pressure on Jackson and force some turnovers. I also think Washington will have to play a clean game to prevent Indiana from going up two scores. Until the Huskies can prove they can play clean in a road game, it’s tough for me to pick them to win one.
Spread: Indiana is favored by 6.5 points.
The Pick: Indiana 30, Washington 24
Week 9 Picks
2024 Record vs. the spread: 18-21
2024 Record, straight up: 30-11
Week 8 Record vs. the spread: 2-3
Week 8, straight up: 3-21
Week 9 reader guest picker: Gilbert
No. 17 Boise State (5-1) at UNLV (6-1) (Friday at 7:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Boise State ranked at No. 17 seems too low, especially with a Heisman-favorite running back in Ashton Jeanty and considering that the Broncos’ only loss is a 3-point loss on the road against No. 1 Oregon. UNLV has given up totals of 44, 34, and 21 points in its last three games while Boise State has racked up totals of 45, 62, and 28. I’m thinking Boise State blows out UNLV.
The spread: Boise State is favored by 3.5 points.
The pick: Boise State 42, UNLV 23
Gilbert’s pick: Boise State 49, UNLV 21
Rutgers (4-3, 1-3) at USC (3-4, 1-4) (Friday at 8 p.m., FOX)
USC needs this one badly after seeing a potential road win go up in flames gainst Maryland. Rutgers needs this one badly too after dropping three straight games since their win against Washington. I expect USC to run the ball effectively against a porous Rutgers rush defense that has surrendered five rushing touchdowns in the past three games.
The spread: USC is favored by 13.5 points.
The pick: USC 28, Rutgers 22
Gilbert’s pick: USC 35, Rutgers 14
No. 20 Ilinois (6-1, 3-1) at No. 1 Oregon (7-0, 4-0) (Saturday at 12:30 p.m., CBS/Paramount+)
I can’t come up with any reasons to pick against the Ducks. They’ll roll in this ranked matchup.
The spread: Oregon is favored by 21.5 points.
The pick: Oregon 39, Illinois 14
Gilbert’s pick: Oregon 35, Illinois 21
No. 8 LSU (6-1) at No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1) (Saturday at 4:30 p.m., ABC)
Both teams have not lost since their opening games. I’m picking LSU to win in a nailbiter. Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier isn’t perfect and he’ll just have to limit turnovers to put LSU in a position to win.
The spread: Texas A&M is favored by 2.5 points
The pick: LSU 26, Texas A&M 23
Gilbert’s pick: LSU 31, Texas A&M 28
No. 3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) at Wisconsin (5-2, 3-2) (Saturday at 4:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Wisconsin is one of the most underrated teams in the country. After losing ranked games to USC and Alabama, the Badgers have outscored their last three opponents 117-16. Penn State is a different animal than Purdue/Rutgers/Northwestern, but the Badgers have a good amount of momentum to pull off the upset.
The spread: Penn State is favored by 6.5 points.
The pick: Wisconsin 28, Penn State 25
Gilbert’s pick: Penn State 27, Wisconsin 24
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Week 8 guest picker Danny went 2-3 against the spread and 2-3 straight up.