Huskies Host Northwestern: Will Washington Bounce Back at Husky Stadium?; Week 4 Picks
Huskies Host Northwestern: Will Washington Bounce Back at Husky Stadium?; Week 4 Picks
Preview: Washington Huskies Face Northwestern Wildcats in Big Ten Opener at Husky Stadium
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Date: September 21, 2024, 4 p.m. PT
Location: Husky Stadium (Seattle, WA)
TV: FS1
Northwestern Wildcats Overview
Record: 2-1
Last week: Win vs. Eastern Illinois, 31-7
Conference: Big Ten
Coach: David Braun
Key Players:
Jack Lausch (RS So.) Quarterback - Lausch took over starting QB duties from Mike Wright in last week’s win against Eastern Illinois. Lausch completed 20-of-31 passes for 227 yards and two touchdowns and also rushed 7 times for 62 yards. He was the first Big Ten QB to throw for over 220 yards and rush for over 60 yards in their first career start since Justin Fields (Ohio State) and Michael Penix (Indiana) in 2019.
Cam Porter (Gr.) Running Back - Porter is in his second season as Northwestern’s No. 1 running back. He has three touchdowns through three weeks. He led the Wildcats offense in rushing with 77 yards on 15 carries last week. He is already on pace to surpass his 772 all-purpose yards from last season.
Xander Mueller (Gr.) Linebacker - Northwestern captain Xander Mueller leads the Wildcats with 20 tackles through three games, including 1 sack. He has also played a role in Northwestern’s pass defense, recording four pass breakups this season. Mueller earned All-Big Ten third team honors last season and is picking up right where he left off this season.
Injury News
Washington
Linebacker Carson Bruener is will “be fine” according to Fisch and is expected to play against Northwestern.
Fisch is “hopeful” that tight end Quentin Moore will be available but said he was “doubtful” that Moore will play this weekend.
Five Things to Know
Northwestern’s Stout Defense. The Wildcats allowed the first sack of the season against Eastern Illinois last week. Against the rush, Northwestern is only allowing 57.7 yards per game, the sixth-best mark in the country. The Wildcats have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season.
Matchup to watch: Washington’s Offensive Line vs. Northwestern’s Defensive Line. Through three games, Northwestern has recorded nine sacks, tying them for 15th most in FBS. Wildcats defensive lineman Aidan Hubbard will be a pass rushing threat. He led Northwestern with 6 sacks last season and earned All-Big Ten Honorable Mention. Northwestern defensive lineman Anto Saka will also be a problem for the Huskies’ defensive line. Saka leads Big Ten edge rushers with 10 pressure this season.
Washington’s right tackle Drew Azzopardi allowed a team-high two pressures in the Apple Cup and per Pro Football Focus, graded a team-low 55.4 amongst the Huskies’ starting offensive linemen. Expect Northwestern to bring pressure from the right side.
New offensive coordinator Zach Lujan leads the Wildcats’ offense. Prior to joining Northwestern, Lujan served as the offensive coordinator at South Dakota State where he won back-to-back national championships, with South Dakota State ranking sixth in FCS scoring offense (37.3) and total offense 449.9 last year. Brendan Preisman who covers the Wildcats, called the offense a “mixed bag” so far under Lujan. Expect to see a short and intermediate pass game combined with a zone rushing game.
Jonah Coleman is making people miss. Washington running back Jonah Coleman is tied for second in the country with missed tackles (25) forced after a rush. He is also ninth in the country 250 rushing yards after contact. Finally, he ranks sixth in the country in explosive runs (runs of 10 yards or more).
Home-Field Advantage. Since the Apple Cup at Lumen Field counted as a neutral-field game, the Huskies’ 16-game win streak at Husky Stadium remains intact. It is the second-longest current home streak in all of FBS.
Washington’s Keys to Victory
Key 1: Get the run game back on track
After rushing for 204 yards against Weber State, and 185 yards against Eastern Michigan, the Huskies only managed 126 yards and averaged a season-low 4.1 yards per carry against the Cougars.
It’s not clear whether the Huskies will have a successful day on the ground.
First, Washington will need better performances from the right side of its offensive line. Starting right guard Enokk Vimahi and right tackle Drew Azzopardi both scored team-low running blocking grades of 38.8 and 31.0 respectively on Pro Football Focus.
Second, Northwestern is only allowing 66.5 rushing yards per game, good for 12th in the country. Their defensive front may make things difficult for the Huskies’ backfield.
Key 2: Cut down the penalties
Sixteen penalties last week for 140 yards is no bueno. The worse penalties were the ones that either killed drives for the Huskies offense or extended drives for the Cougar offense. Former Huskies Head Coach Chris Petersen calls them “SINS” self-inflicted negatives. Sins is right.
Most of the penalties can be chalked up to lack of execution, which can be credited to poor preparation and poor coaching. This has had to be one of the points of emphasis in practice this week leading into Saturday’s game.
I’ll end by saying this. There is no correlation between penalties and winning. In fact, Washington had the second-most penalties in the country last season. But the margin for error on both sides of the football with this Husky team is a lot smaller than the margin for last year’s team.
Key 3: Score touchdowns.
This sounds incredibly blunt, but the reason the Huskies didn’t win last Saturday is because the offense just sucked when it was on the cusp of scoring a touchdown. I love Grady Gross, but he should not be the primary source of points in this offense. Can Jedd Fisch put the offense in a position to succeed when it is in Northwestern territory? This is one thing I’ll be watching out for in this game.
Prediction
I was bullish on Washington’s defense being able to contain the Cougars’ offense last week. Though the Huskies lost last weekend, their defense only surrendered 24 points to a WSU offense that put up 37 on Texas Tech in week 2. This is all to say that I think the Huskies’ defense will be the most challenging defense yet for Northwestern. I don’t think the Huskies will put up points in bunches, but I’m hoping I’m wrong about that.
Spread: Washington is favored by 10.5 points
The Pick: Washington 24, Northwestern 13
Recruiting Corner
I have confirmed that two recruits committed to Washington will be at this weekend’s game against Northwestern:
Class of 2025 three-star offensive lineman Jake Flores (J Serra Catholic - Mission Viejo, CA) - Flores committed to the Huskies in early February. The Los Angeles Times wrote a feature on Flores back in August. Flores’ high school coach at J Serra said this about him:
“Offensive linemen are among the most intelligent people on a football field, and he’s among the upper echelon,” JSerra coach Victor Santa Cruz said. ”He stands above the crowd. Jake always commands respect because he’s giving respect, but his work ethic is amazing.”
Joining Flores will be 2026 kicker commit CJ Wallace (St. John Bosco - Bellflower, CA) Wallace committed to the Huskies in early April after an unofficial visit in March. Reportedly, Wallace has 50-yard plus range.
Chris Sailer Kicking’s scouting report provides the following on Wallace:
CJ is an excellent high school kicking prospect. He is a great looking athlete with a strong leg. CJ does an outstanding job on field goal, a strength. He hits a pure, accurate ball off the ground and easily has 50+ yard range. His kickoffs are strong. His best ball measures 60+ yards, with 3.9+ hang time. Also a developing punter. A competitor who thrives under pressure. CJ has a bright future at the next level with continued hard work. Look for CJ to continue to dominate his junior season. CJ is a fine young man with a great attitude and work ethic. One of the hardest workers out there. Strong prospect. OFFER NOW!!! Excellent pick up for Washington.
Week 4 Picks
2024 Record vs. the spread: 5-10
2024 Record, straight up: 13-2
Week 3 Record vs. the spread: 3-2
Week 3, straight up: 4-11
Week 4 reader guest picker: Kevin N.
No. 24 Illinois (3-0) at No. 22 Nebraska (3-0) (Friday at 5 p.m., Fox)
Both teams enter this game with decent non-conference wins, Illinois with a 23-17 win against Kansas, and Nebraska with a 28-10 win over Colorado. I expect Illinois to force at least one turnover, but I am giving the edge to the home team in this game.
The spread: Nebraska is favored by 8.5 points
The pick: Nebraska 28, Illinois 23
Kevin N.’s pick: Nebraska 29, Illinois 20
No. 11 USC (3-0) at No. 18 Michigan (2-1)(Saturday at 12:30 p.m., CBS)
This has an “are you for real” feeling for both of these teams. While USC already has an impressive win over LSU, Michigan is trying to convince itself that the Texas blowout was an anomaly. I think USC is for real, but that may be my West Coast bias.
The spread: USC is favored by 5.5 points.
The pick: USC 27, Michigan 17
Kevin N.’s pick: USC 27, Michigan 16
UCLA (1-1) at No. 16 LSU (2-1)(Saturday at 12:40 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
UCLA is bad. The Bruins weren’t competitive at all at home against Indiana, and I think LSU has enough fire power to cover at home.
The spread: LSU is favored by 24.5 points.
The pick: LSU 36, UCLA 10
Kevin N’s pick: LSU 30, UCLA 7
No. 12 Utah (3-0) at No. 14 Oklahoma State (3-0) (Saturday at 1 p.m., FOX)
Utah quarterback Cam Rising will return after sitting out last week’s game. I think the Utes have just enough offense to squeak out a tough road game against the Cowboys.
The spread: Utah is favored by 1.5 points
The pick: Utah 23, Oklahoma State 20
Kevin N.’s pick: Utah 27, Oklahoma State 24
No. 6 Tennessee (3-0) at No. 15 Oklahoma (3-0) (Saturday at 4:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
In general, both Tennessee and Oklahoma dominated their inferior opponents the first three weeks of the season. I think Tennessee wins in a shootout.
The spread: Tennessee is favored by 7 points
The pick: Tennessee 30, Oklahoma 27
Kevin N.’s: Tennessee 35, Oklahoma 30
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Week 3 guest picker Woody went 5-0 straight up, and 2-3 against the spread.