Washington Faces Tough Road Test at Iowa: Can the Huskies Stop Kaleb Johnson?; Week 7 Picks
Preview: Washington Huskies vs. Iowa Hawkeyes – Key Matchups, Injury Updates, and Prediction for the Big Ten Showdown
SeaTown Sports is a free email newsletter covering Seattle’s sports teams. Click the button below to subscribe:
Washington at Iowa
Date: Saturday - October 12, 2024, 9 a.m. PT
Location: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa)
TV: FOX
Iowa Hawkeyes Overview
Record: 3-2, 1-1 (Big Ten)
Last week: 35-7 loss to No. 3 Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Coach: Kirk Ferentz
Key Players:
Kaleb Johnson (Jr.) Running Back - Washington defensive coordinator Steve Belichick called Johnson “probably the best skill player” the Huskies have seen this season. During last week’s blowout loss to Ohio State, the Buckeyes limited Johnson to 86 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. It is unlikely the Huskies will be able to build a similar commanding lead like the Buckeyes did against Iowa, so Johnson will likely see his usual 20 to 25 carries against the uskies. Before the Ohio State game, Johnson had rushed for at least 115 yards and two touchdowns in each of Iowa’s four games.
Jay Higgins (Sr.) Linebacker - The fifth-year senior was one of the lone bright spots in last week’s game against Ohio State. He forced and recovered a fumble and finished with 14 tackles, a sack, and a tackle for loss. He’s also tallied two interceptions so far this season. He ranks second in the Big Ten with 48 tackles and 13th nationally.
Jerami Harris (Gr.) Defensive back - Harris, one of the three returning starters in Iowa’s secondary, has two interceptions this season, including a pick-six. He has 12 tackles on the season and leads the Iowa defense with five pass breakups.
Injury News
Washington
Defensive tackle Sebastian Valdez is expected to play on Saturday.
Edge Zach Durfee will be a game-time decision.
Edge Russell Davis is expected to be available.
Tight End Quentin Moore and wide receiver Kevin Green Jr. are likely out.
Five Things to Know
Iowa wants to run the ball. Seems like a theme with these Big Ten offenses, doesn’t it? The Hawkeyes have run the ball on 61% of its plays. With three different running backs tallying 30 carries or more on the season. Along with Johnson, the Huskies will likely also see doses of sophomore running back Jazium Patterson and freshman running back Kamari Moulton.
Matchup to watch: Washington’s Run Defense vs. Kaleb Johnson. Can the Husky defense replicate Ohio State’s performance against Johnson? Though Johnson got 86 yards and a touchdown against the Buckeyes, both were season lows for him. He also averaged a season-low 5.7 yards per carry in last week’s loss. The Iowa offense will look to control the clock and get Johnson back on track against a potentially vulnerable Huskies run defense.
Washington last week surrendered 174 yards and a touchdown on the ground against Michigan. That seems like a lot, but the Wolverines only averaged 4.7 yards per rush. And when it counted the most — in the second half — the Huskies allowed just 52 yards on the ground. This tells me that Belichick is unsurprisingly adept at making in-game adjustments to help Washington’s defense succeed. The Huskies will need the same level of performance as a defensive unit against Johnson and Iowa’s other running backs to get a road victory.
Iowa’s quarterback isn’t good. This also seems like a theme with these Big Ten offenses. Many Iowa fans are over starting quarterback Cade McNamara. He has not posed a threat at all to opposing defenses this season. He is completing 63.9% of his passes with a 5.6-yard average and has totaled three touchdowns and three interceptions. For comparisons sake, Washington quarterback Will Rogers is completing 73.6% of his passes with a 9.1-yard average and has 12 touchdowns and one interception.
The Hawkeyes are 2.5-point favorites. Vegas has another close spread for Washington with the Huskies as underdogs this week against Iowa.
There are a few factors that probably make Iowa a slight favorite in this game.
First, this is a home game for Iowa. And this is a tougher-than-usual road game for the Huskies. The game on Saturday is at 11 a.m. Central time, which means Washington’s players and coaches’ bodies and minds will be functioning at 9 a.m. Pacific time. I’ve noticed Rogers seems to always have a cup of coffee in his hand pregame, he may need to increase his caffeine intake and also get his teammates to do the same. Jokes aside, the early game time can’t be a plus factor for Washington.
Second, Iowa’s defense has a knack for forcing turnovers with six interceptions and three fumble recoveries (and five forced fumbles) this season. The Hawkeyes are averaging 1.5 takeaways per game, the second-most amongst Husky opponents so far this season (Washington State is averaging two takeaways per game).
Third, Kirk Ferentz’s team has won eight of its last ten games at home when favored by five points or less. Iowa seems to have a knack for getting wins in games between evenly-matched teams.
The series between Iowa and Washington. The teams meet for the seventh time in the all-time series. The two schools last met in the 1995 Sun Bowl, with Iowa beating the Huskies 38-18. Before the Sun Bowl, the Huskies beat Iowa in a pair of Rose Bowls in 1991 (46-34) and 1982 (28-0).
Here are the 1991 Rose Bowl highlights for your viewing pleasure:
Washington’s Keys to Victory
Key 1: Force Iowa to Pass
As mentioned above, Iowa’s pass offense is putrid. The Hawkeyes rank 119th in dropback EPA.1 They won’t be able to do much against an impressive Washington pass defense that allows the Huskies to load the box against the run. Now, whether the Huskies can force Iowa to pass is another question. If Washington’s offense can put points on the board and force Iowa to play from behind, the Hawkeyes will need to pass to play catchup.
Key 2: Prevent Kaleb Johnson Explosive Plays
In five games, Kaleb Johnson’s longest rush per game is 45 yards. That’s just about half a football field and makes things much easier for an offense that has no passing game. Washington has also allowed rushes of 22 yards or more in four of its six games. If the Huskies can prevent Johnson from breaking free for a big run, it will force Iowa to have to work for its points and potentially put them into third down situations.
Defending against Johnson is not as simple as loading up the box as evident by his 9 yards per carry average against 8-man boxes. It will take an entire team effort from the defensive line, to the linebackers, to the secondary, to stop Johnson from taking over this game.
Key 3: Protect Will Rogers
Against a solid Michigan defensive front, the Huskies offensive line played well enough and gave Rogers enough time to complete 21-of-31 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns. A similar line from Rogers will likely put the Huskies in decent position to win this game. Washington will need to prevent the Iowa defensive line duo of Aaron Graves and Deontae Craig from disrupting Rogers. The pair has led the Hawkeyes in pressures the past two games.
Prediction
I would love to pick the Huskies in this game but I’m not sure they can conjure up the same magic without its home crowd against an Iowa team that is looking for blood after suffering a humiliating defeat to Ohio State.
Iowa has its identity. It runs the ball. It controls the clock. And it relies on its stout defense to keep the game close. The team has seven sixth-year seniors and has the sixth-most returning games played in the country. It’s telling that Iowa only brought in four transfers in the offseason.
In contrast, it seems like the entire Washington team is from the transfer portal. The Huskies may have found their identity against Michigan: a strong defense paired with a balanced offense that can drive the football efficiently and creatively.
What team will show up on Saturday? The team that made timely defensively plays and limited mistakes on offense against Michigan. Or a team that continually hurt itself in winnable games against Rutgers and Washington State?
In the past two seasons, Iowa has won five of seven games decided by eight points or fewer. I think this will be one of those games.
Spread: Iowa is favored by 2.5 points.
The Pick: Iowa 20, Washington 17
Week 7 Picks
2024 Record vs. the spread: 13-16
2024 Record, straight up: 24-6
Week 6 Record vs. the spread: 3-2
Week 6, straight up: 4-12
Week 7 reader guest picker: Anthony
No. 1 Texas (5-0) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (4-1) at the Cotton Bowl (Dallas, TX) (Saturday at 12:30 p.m., ABC)
Having quarterback Quinn Ewers back will help Texas in this rivalry game. I don’t think Oklahoma has enough firepower to keep up with the Longhorns.
The spread: Texas is favored by 14.5 points.
The pick: Texas 38, Oklahoma 21
Anthony’s pick: Texas 31, Oklahoma 21
No. 4 Penn State (5-0, 2-0) at USC (3-2, 1-2)(Saturday at 12:30 p.m., CBS/Paramount+)
It’s the battle of two actual competent Big Ten quarterbacks. Though the Trojans dropped out of the Top 25 after losing to an unranked Minnesota team last weekend, I’m a little more worried about Penn State who managed to only beat a bad UCLA team by 16 points. I’m giving USC the edge here because it’s a home game. I don’t think the annual USC collapse will happen . . . yet.
The spread: Penn State is favored by 4.5 points.
The pick: USC 30, Penn State 24
Anthony’s pick: Penn State 31, USC 17
Stanford (2-3) at No. 11 Notre Dame (4-1) (Saturday at 12:30 p.m., NBC)
The Irish keep it rolling and notch a win against the Cardinal. Will Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard ever eclipse 200 passing yards in a game this season?
The spread: Notre Dame is favored by 23 points.
The pick: Notre Dame 27, Stanford 13
Anthony’s pick: Notre Dame 30, Stanford 14
No. 2 Ohio State (5-0, 2-0) at No. 3 Oregon (5-0, 2-0) (Saturday at 4:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
This is the positive thing about conference realignment right? A playoff type of matchup that occurs in conference play. I’m not sure if the Buckeyes will be ready for the hostile Autzen Stadium crowd.
The spread: Ohio State is favored by 3 points.
The pick: Oregon 30, Ohio State 27
Anthony’s pick: Oregon 35, Ohio State 32
No. 9 Ole Miss (5-1) at No. 13 LSU (4-1) (Saturday at 4:30 p.m., ABC)
Both of these teams feel overrated to me. Ole Miss is No. 9 in the country despite losing to Kentucky and playing no one of consequence, while LSU escaped against South Carolina and its only impressive win is against USC (and maybe not so impressive anymore).
The spread: Ole Miss is favored by 3.5 points.
The pick: Ole Miss 30, LSU 23
Kyle’s pick: LSU 34, Ole Miss 30
Thank you for reading. We appreciate all who support, subscribe, and share SeaTown Sports with friends and family. If you haven’t already — please consider subscribing below.
What’s EPA?
Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game.
Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
Source: CollegeFootballData.com.
Week 6 guest picker Kyle went 3-2 straight up, and 2-3 against the spread.